The Secretary of State Money Primary

Money is an important resource in an election. It’s so important in fact that until the votes are counted and the primary election results are in, political analysts often look at the amount of money candidates have raised and spent to measure how they’re doing in a campaign. Analysts will sometimes refer to this as a money primary. Statewide elections are won on Name ID and that requires cash for candidates that are not previously well known. Name ID is a fancy political term used to signal whether or not voters know your name. Here's the current state of the money raised and spent in the Secretary of State for both Democrats and Republican.

Numbers in hundreds of thousands | Secretary of State

At first glance Devlin appears to have the advantage. He starts and ends with the most money. A closer look reveals he has raised and spent less than every candidate except Richardson (who entered the race last). That suggests Devlin is the least invested in the campaign at this point. He may be waiting to do his big push, but it's also possible he doesn't want to waste money running for Secretary of State if he's planning on dropping out.

Hoyle and Avakian have both demonstrated impressive fundraising, having both raised $200k this year. Avakian has spent half as much as Hoyle has, but has more cash on hand. I wouldn't be surprised if current polling showed a close race among the two.

On the GOP front Leiken has been spending as fast as he’s been taking it in. He's attempting to build up Name ID as quickly as possible to gain a primary advantage. Richardson comes in last in all categories, but probably started with some of the highest Name ID in the field after running for Governor in 2014. He announced his campaign a couple of months later than the other four candidates currently in the race. I expect he will start campaigning a lot harder after the first of the year.

To summarize, Avakian and Hoyle appear to be duking it out. Devlin is in a holding pattern of sorts. Leiken is working to raise his name ID and Richardson is off to a slow start.

Devlin May Drop Secretary of State Bid

Sources have informed me that Senator Richard Devlin is having a fundraiser next monthw with the Senate Democrat Leadership Fund. Although it's possible Senate Democrats are seeking to bolster his Secretary of State campaign, I find it more likely he's going to drop out of the Democrat primary election for Secretary of State.

The most likely scenario is Devlin has been having trouble gaining traction against Hoyle and Avakian. He has the most money in the bank of the three ($300k+), but has raised the least of the three so far this cycle. Since his budget-writing counterpart in the House, Peter Buckely, is retiring, Devlin has likely been asked to stick it out as the Senate Co-chair of Ways & Means. I wouldn't be surprised if he makes that determiniation in the next few weeks.

Margaret Carter May Run For Senate Seat She Left in 2009 →

This could be a tough race. Carter could use "first African-American woman elected to the Oregon Legislature" in her campaign to some powerful effect in a comeback effort. Frederick isn's the incumbent, but has represented half of that same district in the House. Carter and Frederick are both quasi-incumbents in this scenario. Neither are technically the incumbent, but both have legislative experience that is beneficial in a Senate campaign. Lawmaking experience is obviously not a pre-requisite, but I think some voters certainly prefer their representation in the Senate to have some experience.

Multnomah County Commissioner Jules Bailey Is Preparing to Run for Portland Mayor →

Bailey, who tells WW he has been recruited in part by organized labor, says his priorities will be affordable housing, environmental sustainability, jobs and homelessness—an issue where he accuses Wheeler of peddling simplistic solutions.

Interesting that labor is recruiting against Wheeler. Are they afraid he's going to be too protective of business?

The Most Competitive Race in Oregon Today

HD 20 Election Results — 2010

Oregon Secretary of State | November 2015

Although HD 40 is garnering a lot of attention as a swing seat, Republicans have failed to capture it the last two cycles. HD 40 tends to get more attention because it has been one of the most expensive legislative races in the state the last few elections. The past performances of the parties have led me to rate the seat at Lean Democrat for the time being. It's not the most competetive seat in Oregon.

HD 20 Election Results — 2012

Oregon Secretary of State | November 2015

A seat that has flown under the radar until recently has been HD 20. It's currently held by Democrat Paul Evans. A few days ago, Laura Morett, a Republican, announced her intention to run for the seat. She's been getting national attention, and was even noticed by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC), a national GOP group that weighs in on state legislative races to help Republicans, noted her announcement in a tweet:

HD 20 Election Results — 2014

Oregon Secretary of State | November 2015

This suggests she's not just another Republican wanting to run for office, but potentially a candidate hand picked by the RLCC and the Caucus to contend for a swing seat. The data suggests this is the most competitive seat in the state. Both Evans and Morett have equal shots at picking up the seat.

Before Paul Evans, HD 20 was held by a moderate Republican, Vicki Berger. In the previous four elections she protected the seat well, handily winning re-election each time. The disaster of 2014 took a couple of seats thought to be solid Republican, and revealed them to be swingy suburban-rural seats where Democrats can compete under favorable conditions (which right now in Oregon is almost all the time). HD 20 is one of them. You can take a look at the results on the right and what happened the last couple of cycles.

Why is this race more competitive than any other? It's because this seat is actually closer in voter registration then any other seat out there. Evans is the incumbent, but by all accounts he shouldn't hold this seat. A moderate to Conservative Republican can hold this seat with 55-60% of the vote even in bad cycles. In a good year for Oregon Democrats (such as 2014) they would be able to pickup a seat like this, but everything has to go their way. In 2014 it did. However, Paul Evans background isn't stellar. Just because it didn't hurt him in 2014, doesn't mean it won't in 2016 or 2018.

The current turnout models favor Democrats in Oregon by 3-5 points at least in even or near even districts. Favorable turnout, coupled with incumbency are the factors boosting Evans and keeping him in this race. It is for these reasons that HD 20 is currently rated Toss Up and is, without a doubt, the most competitive race in Oregon today.

HD 20 Voter Regisration

Oregon Secretary of State | November 2015

Vote Totals in HD 20

Oregon Secretary of State | November 2015

Shields' announcement creates more open seats

State Senator Chip Shields is the first Oregon Senate incumbent to announce he won't be returning in 2017. Before this we'd only seen re-election announcements in the Senate. This will have two major impacts for Oregon politics.

The first is in electoral consequences. Open Senate seats usually result in fairly large chain reactions. Shields' announcement is no exception. House members are always top prospects for open Senate seats. The current State Representatives in Shields' senate district are House Speaker Tina Kotek and Rep. Lew Frederick. Kotek is clearly happy where she's at for the moment (seeing as since she passed up previous opportunities to run for higher office). However, Frederick was clearly aware this was coming since he announcement came 13 minutes after Shields' did. Frederick's senate run will create an additional open seat in House District 43. All of these districts are completely out of reach for Republicans.

The other aspect of this announcement is its legislative impact: Shields held spots on several coveted Senate committees. These will become available in 2017 so we're likely to see some shake-ups in committee appointments as well in 2017.

Kitzhaber foe Dennis Richardson weighs political comeback — as secretary of state →

Dennis Richardson back in late August.

Richardson told The Bulletin in an email that he’s been sought out as a candidate for “every statewide position on the 2016 ballot,” but he has no intention of running.

Dennis Richardson yesterday:

Instead, in a brief interview Thursday with The Oregonian/OregonLive, Richardson confirmed persistent whispers he's thinking of joining next year's Republican primary for secretary of state.

Even a few months is a lifetime in politics.

Oregon Senate Republicans announce all but one hope to be back in 2017 →

Taylor Anderson writing for The Bulletin:

These Republicans are seeking re-election: Sens. Herman Baertschiger Jr, of Grants Pass; Brian Boquist, of Dallas; Ted Ferrioli, of John Day; Fred Girod, of Stayton; Bill Hansell, of Athena; Tim Knopp, of Bend; and Jeff Kruse, of Roseburg.

Almost every Oregon Senator is running for re-election.

The fate of Sen. Doug Whitsett, R-Klamath Falls,wasn’t immediately clear. His term expires at the end of next year but his name was left off the list of Republican senators seeking re-election.

Whitsett likely didn't want to be pressured by the caucus. I wouldn't be surprised if he announces his re-election himself later this year except on his own schedule.